Tuesday, May 05

Paul Tudor Jones argues that successful trading requires treating it like boxing - maintaining constant risk management and patience while waiting for rare moments to take truly big swings, rather than trying to predict markets consistently. He views Bitcoin as the superior inflation hedge and identifies AI as one of history's greatest risks due to the industry's inadequate risk management practices. Jones emphasizes that longevity in markets comes from disciplined execution and knowing when not to trade, having compounded capital over four decades by focusing on managing downside rather than chasing upside.

Researchers have created a 13B parameter language model trained exclusively on pre-1931 text to explore whether AI systems can independently rediscover future innovations like General Relativity or predict historical events they weren't trained on. The project demonstrates that "vintage" language models trained only on out-of-copyright data are technically feasible, though creating usable chat interfaces still requires contamination from modern AI systems for fine-tuning. This approach opens new research avenues for testing AI's capacity for genuine discovery versus pattern matching, while also providing a potential solution to copyright concerns in AI training data.

Britain's nuclear program initially succeeded through a centralized technocratic model where experts received carte blanche from government, allowing them to build the world's first commercial nuclear station and outpace all other nations in nuclear construction through the 1960s. The program's eventual failure wasn't primarily due to poor technology choices (as commonly believed), since even inferior British reactor designs operated efficiently under better management, but rather stemmed from the breakdown of the technocratic governance model that stopped taking economic incentives seriously and failed to adapt to changing public expectations. This demonstrates that giving engineers unchecked power without proper institutional constraints and feedback mechanisms ultimately undermines rather than enhances technological progress.